With Malice…

Welcome to Kicking Balls: the AFL tips and results section.

Perhaps I should tell you a little about myself. Being a Melbourne boy originally, it is fair to say I was born with AFL blood in my vains. Born into a Fitzroy family, (my first photo was in my fathers 1940’s Maroon’s jumper, I never had a chance..) I have followed the game closely all my life. I spent much of my youth at various grounds around Melbourne frantically waving my flag, dreaming that one day my boys would win that elusive flag.

After the demise of my beloved roys in 96 I decided against aligning myself with another team, prefering instead to just enjoy the games for what they were, brilliant sporting contests. Of course, that isn’t to say I didn’t get SOME pleasure watching the Lions beat Essendon and Collingwood in the Grand Finals of 2001, 2002 and 2003! Of course though, it helps in tipping to listen to the head a little more than the heart…

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In what has been roundly declared ‘the closest season in living memory’, tipping has been something of a nightmare. I’m sure most people at the start of the year had an idea of how they thought the ladder would look by this stage of the year, and only a very brave few would have predicted a top 4 including Geelong, Kangaroos and Port Adelaide. This week offers little respite for tippers I’m afraid. With only 3 of 16 sides certain to miss finals (yes, mathematically Freo CAN still make it..) and only 2 sides virtually guaranteed spots in the final 8, this week sees 5 of the 8 games fature head-to-head battles between finals aspirants.

Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda.

The doggies copped an almighty flogging last week. The Eagles were at their rampant best and the boys from the western suburbs looked tired and slow. The Saints on the other hand are making a late charge for the finals. Personally, I see the saints continuing their run of wins, the dogs just haven’t come close to the form they showed last year, and I see them missing the 8 come round 22. Saints by 20

Geelong vs Richmond

Looking at the ladder, and remembering their clash earlier in the year, this appears a no-brainer. The Tiges over-performed the past 2 seasons and are paying the price now. Geelong are unbackable flag favourites at the moment, and down at “The Cattery” (Skilled Stadium, Kardinia Park, whatever you like to call it) they are a real chance of posting a monsterous win. Cats by 50

Carlton vs Collingwood.

Danger game for the Pies. Carlton showed some very good signs in their loss to St Kilda last week, and Collingwood were simply terrible. Collingwood SHOULD win this, but having said that what ’should’ happen has meant little so far this year. Hesitantly I’m tipping the Maggies by 18.

Brisbane vs Kangaroos

If someone had told me 5 weeks ago this match would be one of the games of the round I probably would have had them committed, yet here we are, the Lions having won 4 on the trot with an average winning margin of 70 points, including beating West Coast in Perth and Collingwood in Melbourne, and the Kangaroos, who have won 12 of their past 14. It’s possible the toughest game of the week to pick. I’m going for the Lions based on 2 factors, the Gabba advantage and Brisbanes new found forward structure. Lions by 12

Adelaide vs Port Adelaide

Derby games are always tough, but the added incentive in this game is that Port can virtually end the Crows slim finals chances with a win here. Adelaide has endured a wretched run with injuries this year and have lost 4 of their last 5 games, one can only wonder if their window of opportunity for a flag has closed now. Port on the other hand, after a mid-season slump are on a roll, winning 5 of their past 6. The Cornes boys are in red-hot form and I see no reason why that won’t continue. Port by 25 points

Melbourne vs Sydney

Another home game for Sydney on foreign soil, and another rolling one would suspect. Paul Roos, as he always seems to, is getting the swans in shape at the right time of the year. They’ve won 3 of their last 4, with the loss being a close-run game against the Eagles in Perth. Melbourne have had a year to forget and honestly can’t wait for the year to end. They’ll put up a fight, but it will be in vain. Swans by 45

Hawthorn vs Essendon

Tough, tough game. The Hawks were dreadful last week (sorry Don), their chipping style of play simply doesn’t work when you make as many errors as they did in perfect conditions last week. They’ve lost 3 of 4 and, should they lose here, could go from top 4 aspirant to struggling to stay in the 8. The Bombers reacted to the news that Kevin Sheedy’s contract would not be renewed avter 27 years by posting a good win over Adelaide. A lot of this game depends on who turns up. Both sides were missing key personnel last week. Personally I feel the Hawks are in decline after a stellar 3/4 of a season. Bombers by 20

West Coast vs Fremantle

These games have provided some great highlights in recent years. Mathematically it is possible for the Dockers to make the 8, but the series of events that would need to transpire for that to occur is so unlikely that we should really write them off. That doesn’t mean they won’t want to put some dents in the eagles top 4 plans though. The return of Cousins has seen the premiers step up a gear or two, although questions still hang over Chris Judds’ fitness as he battles a groin complaint. Before Ben stepped back on the park the Eagles looked decidedly shaky. This is my upset of the round, I feel that Freo will send a reality check through the Eagles camp this week, eeking out a hard-fought 10 point win.

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