With Malice…

So, I have yet another special to With Malice… another guy from a sports forum I frequent - the redoubtable Jimbo Jones! So, without further ado - here’s Jimbo!

The 2007 Rugby World Cup has begun! And there are a few early signs suggesting where Bill [editor's note: ‘Bill' is the Webb Ellis Trophy for the winner] might be heading. A few interesting results have unfolded already: particularly so in Pool D, with the Argentians upsetting the French at home at Stade de France - putting the home team’s finals berth in doubt.

We all knew Pool D, or Pool of Death as it is often called, would be the most interesting pool in the comp to watch - with France, Argentina and Ireland all worthy finals contenders. Looking at the statistics, Argentina has fared well against the French over the last 10 years, winning 40% of all matches played against the rugby powerhouse. So they were bound to be competitive. Most just thought that they wouldn’t be quite that competitive. It has turned out to be an embarrassing loss to the competition hosts, losing at home despite having the advantage of l’esprit de clocher - within the sounds of church bells, an advantage the French enjoy and (usually) capitalise on.

The truth of the matter is that the French were awful on the day. They played with little composure, and once they finally found some momentum they made a mistake and lost possession. They dropped balls, missed easy shots at goal, threw questionable passes, missed tackles… and failed to play to the level the World was expecting. I don’t necessarily think Argentina played better - I simply think the French played worse.

It was a scrappy affair from both sides, with mistakes commonplace from both sides. The Argentineans got in front early and maintained their lead, and now look like a realistic chance to make the semi-finals for their best ever RWC finish (providing they can hold off the Irish!). Argentina will likely be motivated by the RWC match loss of 2003, where the Irish won a very tight match 16-15, taking the 2^nd place behind Australia in Pool A and knocking Argentina out of the competition.

After the weekend, Argentina are now ranked 4^th in the world - with France and Ireland both falling a place. They are ranked behind their Southern counterparts: NZ, Australia and South Africa: and this could be the very 4 that fight it out come semi-finals!

Ireland is now in the hot seat in Pool D. Their recent form has been somewhat questionable: they lost both RWC warm-up matches to Argentina in 2007 (May-June, away) as well as Scotland (away) in August. They then narrowly beat Italy at home 23-20 (August) and had an unconvincing win against third-tier Namibia in round one of the RWC (32-17) on the weekend. Namibia, remember, were beaten by fellow Africans the Springboks 105-13 in August. Namibia is also featured in the world’s heaviest RWC defeat at the hands of Australia in 2003: 142-0.

Nonetheless, the passionate Irish are bound to be competitive against Los Pumas, both teams winning exactly 50% of matches played against each other in the last decade. This game will go down to the wire. Ireland’s biggest hurdle, is France - with the home team to rally strong against the Paddies in a desperate bid to secure a finals berth (albeit against NZ - in Wales). Ireland has struggled historically against Les Bleus, with France winning 75% of all matches and 80% of all home matches against Ireland since 1997. So, Ireland statistically has roughly a 20% chance of winning this game on the 22^nd, although they are bound to put up a fight.

With the probable result a French victory, Ireland are the ones most likely to be watching the finals from the stands, with the Los Pumas likely to top the group and Les Bleus rallying against Ireland for a playoffs berth. It will be a shame if the Irish fall short of the finals, after showing such great form over the past few years, particularly in 2006. The Paddies have shown some promise lately with some good recent results over South Africa, Australia, England and Wales since 2006.

But Argentina has thrown a spanner in the works, no doubt about it!

- Jimbo

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