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This is the first piece in what will be a series of discussions by the Bloguin NBA sites. We're a relatively new organisation, so this week there are 4 participants, but this will be a regular thing hosted across the Bloguin NBA sites.
This week's question:
Is the recent success of the Cleveland Cavaliers merely a product of having had a weak schedule thus far? Are they truly one of the super-elite?
First up, yours truly - hosting this week!
Quite simply, no. Yes, they do have an absolute phenomenal player leading them in LeBron James - a player that is destined to go down in history as one of the greats... but the team that they've built around him isn't one that's going to win a title.
That's a train of thought that many won't wish to ride.
"Look at their record!"
"Look at the way they're playing!"
Yes, Cleveland look damn good at the moment - winning 13 of 15 games in November... but before crowning them just yet, look at the schedule they've had. Of those 15 games, 3 of them were against what could be considered 'good' teams. And Cleveland lost two of those (Nov 1st against New Orleans, and a Nov 19th loss against the Pistons). They beat Denver on the 13th, but that was at home. They go into the Pepsi Center and I think a healthy Nuggets take care of business.
Simply beating up on bad teams doesn't make you one of the elite within the NBA.
At the moment, the Cleveland Cavaliers are just too dependant on one player to be considered as formidable as the Boston Celtics or the LA Lakers. It's hard to think of them being able to match it with teams such as a fully fit Utah, Portland, Houston - or even New Jersey and Dallas at the moment - let alone Boston or LA. Maybe competitive in Cleveland (where thus far they are 10-0), but traveling? Currently they're 5-3 on the road against middling talent.
Cleveland have been favoured by the scheduling gods thus far, with many games against inferior opponents. That will continue through December (only games at Denver and against Houston really count as 'tough'), but will get a little tougher in January - games against Boston, New Orleans... then at LA Lakers, Portland, Utah (who should be fully fit by then) and Orlando will certainly test the team's resolve.
By the end of the season, LeBron James will probably be leading the conversation when MVP discussions come up.
Likewise, the Cleveland franchise will be a bit presence in the playoffs. But when it comes to having a sit-down about who is likely to win the NBA title, only stat-freaks like John Hollinger will be considering the Cavaliers to be a chance to win it all. Even then, he only gives them top billing in his power rankings due to the fact that the stats allow nothing else. No-one in their right mind considers the Cavs #1 in the NBA at the moment.
And nothing much is going to change between now and the finals. LeBron will still be a beast, and he'll still be carrying the team.
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Next to make their case - 3 Shades of Blue's Josh Coleman...
You can make a case for the Cleveland Cavaliers being amongst the Eastern Conference's elite solely because of their relatively weak schedule so far. After all, their three losses have come to the better teams in the NBA (Boston, Detroit, New Orleans), while the rest of their road is littered with teams like Charlotte, New York, Indiana and Milwaukee (8 wins from 2 meetings with each). Their first game against he Pacers resulted in a measly 4 point win (111-107). And in their first meeting with the Bucks, they only won by 6 points (99-93). So you could come to that conclusion and feel ok about it.
But you would be wrong. Their average margin of victory for their 17 wins is 17 points. They are blowing teams out with absolutely no mercy. They have only had 3 wins that didn't result in double-digit superiority. They are 4th in the league in scoring at 103.5 ppg, 2nd in points allowed (90.2 ppg), 1st in point differential (+13.3), 1st in rebound differential (+5.6) and 3rd in assist differential (+2.9). They are becoming a complete team.
Let's not forget the other thing that makes them an elite team: LeBron Raymone James. He is the best player in the league and I will suffer no arguments from anyone on that statement. He makes everyone around him better because he is the most dominant force in the NBA today. He's a PG in a PF's body, he is Magic Johnson version 2.0 -- there is nothing on the basketball court that he cannot do. When you have a player like that, teams are scared to play you, no matter what your record is. When your record sits at 17-3, nobody wants to play you anyways. Put the two together and that's the mark of an elite team -- not just a pretender.
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Now for the penned stylings of Upside and Motor's Rob Mahoney...
Yes, the Cavs schedule has been all fluff so far. But part of being a good team is taking care of business against teams that you should beat, and on that end you have to give the LeBronaires some credit. What separates the "good, but I can't stand watching them" Cavs of last year from the "great, and still kind of boring" Cavs of this year isn't just the ridiculous all-around offensive efficiency, Mo Williams' ability to spread the floor and make plays, or James' developing post game. Rather, the key has been the decisive way that they've manhandled nearly every opponent. The stats certainly favor Cleveland in that regard, with the Cavs boasting the best point differential in the league (which is the best statistical indicator of future success).
What's that you say?
Of course they should be blowing out the Charlottes and OKCs of the league? Certainly, but saying they should be doing those things is still a bit different than hitting the floor and accomplishing them.
And, even when you adjust the differential for the Cavs' powerfully weak strength of schedule (as the Simple Rating System does), the Cavs are currently posting a historically epic level of dominance (for what it's worth, Cleveland has actually bumped it's SRS to first in the league and all-time at 13.08).
Oh, and they still have LeBron.
He's a lover and a fighter. He can play fast, play slow, and fix the economy. He's tougher than diamonds and rich like cream, he's stronger and harder than a bad girl's dream, he makes a bad one good and makes a wrong one right.
OK, those might be Huey Lewis and the News lyrics. But the point is made: LeBron is a bad, bad man and, if he's bad, I don't wanna be good.
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And finishing up with the webmaster himself, of TWolves Blog fame, Derek Hanson...
I don't think any team gets to 17-3 without being one of the elite teams in the league.
Perhaps if the Cavaliers had a quirky schedule that front-loaded their season with multiple games against the true doormats of the league like that Wizards, Thunder, Clippers, and Timberwolves, you could make an argument that they're a fraud.
However, the Cavs have faced a fair amount of challenging opponents already and wins against Utah, Atlanta, and Denver, post-Iverson trade, certainly put any claims to rest. I think another big point to consider is their average margin of victory. You can't control who you're scheduled to play, but you can control how well you perform when you play them.
I'm not going to take the time to do the math, but a quick glance over their game-by-game results show that the Cavaliers are frequently posting double-digit victories over the weaker teams on their schedule.
I think a final point to consider, and perhaps the one that nails the coffin shut on this argument more than any other, is that the Cavaliers are led by LeBron James. The man is clearly the most dominant force in the league right now and may ever surpass Jordan when everything is said and done. I don't see how any team he's on could be considered anything but elite.
On any given night, King James can crown you all by himself.
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