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As you may or may not know, sometimes I'm lucky enough to get a guest writer here to help out. This very in depth look at the Lakers vs Rockets 2nd round series was done by none other than one of Bloguin's founding fathers - Dave Kelsey (also known around the traps as College Wolf), who is one of the leading lights at the TWolves Blog.
I asked him for an outsider's perspective on the LA/Houston match-up, so read on...
You may be wondering just exactly WHY a TWolves blogger such as myself is previewing the second round playoff match-up of the LA Lakers vs. the Houston Rockets, and I won't blame you. Here's the gist of it. I love the NBA. I love the NBA Playoffs. I love writing stuff about the entire NBA in general. The problem here is that the TWolves missed the playoffs... again. Anyways, my buddy Don here at 'with malice...' invited me to preview this upcoming match-up for his excellent blog. I can't turn down a good blogging invite, despite the fact that I am not all that fond of the Lakers. I'll put my biases aside, and look at this series from the perspective of an objective "outsider", or that of the common NBA fan.
Rather than bore everyone with paragraphs of my ramblings, let's break this down position by position and see what happens:
Point Guard: Derek Fisher vs. Aaron Brooks
Aaron Brooks comes into this match-up as a relative playoff n00bie, while Derek Fisher has the pedigree of a champion. You have to like the speed and tenacity that young Brooks brings to the table, while Fisher relies on his guile, experience, and the ability to knock down big shots when he's left open. In regards to "declaring a winner" at this position, it's tough because Fisher's intangibles (experience and leadership) may or may not be more important than Brooks' athleticism and ability to drive to the hoop; depending on whom you ask. It should be noted that Brooks is also capable of knocking down a fair amount of threes himself, as he is a career 36% shooter from distance.
What to watch for: Can Fisher adequately depend the infinitely quicker Brooks? Will he have trouble keeping Brooks in front of him? If not, Brooks will have the opportunity to wreak havoc by breaking down Fisher and getting into the lane to either finish at the hoop or kick out to open shooters (in theory.) Brooks, on the other hand, should be able to guard Fisher despite his size (or lack thereof) due to Fisher's lack of foot speed and penetration.
Advantage: Push. I like Brooks' athleticism a lot, but Fisher's big game savvy should not be discounted. Regardless, this position will not be the determinant of the series outcome either way.
Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Ron Artest
I like this match-up. As a fan, I can't wait to watch these two titans battle each other.
On one hand, you've got the extremely confident and even more talented pure scorer. Possibly the best offensive player in the game.
On the other, you got the rugged, physical, and maybe a bit crazy lockdown defender. And he might be one of the best defenders in the game.
You've got to like Artest going at Bryant, unafraid of his bravado and showmanship.
Unfortunately, he didn't exactly back it up during that regular season game in Houston, when Kobe dropped like 68 points against Artest in the fourth quarter. Perhaps in hindsight, jawing at Kobe wasn't the best course of action for Artest to take.
And you have to hand it to Kobe for not being afraid to take it at Artest, despite the fact that he's built like a tank and one of the best wing defenders in the entire league. Still, you've got to like Artest this season, as I believe he has met and/or exceeded pretty much everyone's expectations. He didn't melt down, he has played solid defense, at times carried the Houston team on offense, and hell, some would say he's even been a great team leader.
But still... Kobe is Kobe, and he's not far from his prime. He is going to be tough to stop in the playoffs no matter who one gives the unenviable task.
Luckily for the Rockets, they are probably the one team in the Western Conference most able to guard Bryant, as they've got Artest (as noted), and the "No Stats All-Star" Shane Battier. I don't see Artest solely guarding Kobe all series long, and their ability to relieve Artest with Battier on defense gives them a small chance.
Not to stop Kobe, mind you, but to maybe contain him.
What to watch for: Artest's composure. As long as Kobe doesn't get under his skin (too much), Artest will be ahead of the game. As we all know, Kobe is a pro at agitating his opponents... which doesn't bode well for a potential "hot-head" like Artest. Granted, Ron Ron has been great this year from a psychological standpoint, but who knows what could happen with him. I mean, no one ever knows what he's thinking, and a nuclear meltdown is never really completely out of the equation.
Advantage: Lakers. Hey, it's Kobe freaking Bryant after all.
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza vs. Shane Battier
This one is a bit more difficult to definitively analyze, because I am assuming Battier will do his share of defending Kobe at times. Both players can hit from deep, but does Ariza's athleticism trump Battier's guile? Hard to say.
What to watch for: This is one of the more "lackluster" match-ups of the series, as I'm not entirely sure these guys will be playing against each other the entire time. I guess just watch out for some In Your Face Disgrace dunks by Ariza.
Advantage: Small advantage Houston.
I like Battier's level-headedness and leadership. He is the "No Stats All-Star", after all.
Power Forward: Lamar Odom vs. Luis Scola
Odom played out of his mind against Utah now that he is back in the starting lineup. Can he continue his all-around excellence at both ends of the floor?
Scola is gritty and physical, which is the exact antidote to stop Odom (and the Lakers) dead in their tracks. On top of that, he can hit his mid-range shots, which will/should draw Odom out of the lane. This could be a big-time battle.
What to watch for: Odom's psyche. He simply cannot allow Scola to push him around. If he comes out tentative and/or hesitant, he could (will?) be reduced to the near seven foot tall pile of worthless suck that he was last year in the Finals against Boston. When Scola figuratively "punches Odom in the mouth", he needs to punch right back.
Advantage: Push, with a small lean towards the Lakers if Odom plays like he did in Round 1.
Center: Pau Gasol vs. YAO Ming
Two behemoths collide. Well, not really. But they are two great players. Two All-Stars. And they are the tallest guys on their team. And they are both foreign.
What is not to love about this match-up?!?!
Gasol is softer than people think, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the surprisingly physical YAO in the low post. Can Gasol adequately defend him without getting into foul trouble?
Unfortunately for Gasol, YAO can also shoot the mid-range jumper, so he is going to have to leave the lane to defend him.
On the other hand, Gasol is one of the best "running big men" in the entire league. And YAO is probably one of the slowest players in the entire league. Infer from that what you will.
What to watch for: Foul trouble. If either of these players gets into foul trouble, their team could be in some trouble. Luckily for LA, they have Bynum on the bench. Houston is not quite as fortunate.
Advantage: Small advantage to LA, because I love Pau's ability to run the court.
But like I said, if either player gets into foul trouble, that swings the advantage drastically to the other team.
Bench: (Shannon Brown, Sasha V., Luke Walton, Josh Powell, Andrew Bynum) vs. (Kyle Lowry, Von Wafer, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Joey Dorsey)
Before looking at the bench players, all I could think about was how everyone keeps harping on LA having the "best/deepest" bench in the entire league. Ummm... no. Fail. Bynum is solid, I concur. However, he only played 15 minutes per game in the Utah series, and who knows how healthy he'll be. I abhor Sasha and those other guys don't impress me in the slightest. I will note that Ariza was moved from the bench to the starting lineup, which takes a lot away from their bench. Hopefully we'll get an A-Mo sighting. As for Houston, they are decent players, but nothing spectacular.
What to watch for: Hopefully NOT the bench. Can the starters all just play 48 minutes?
Advantage: Very small advantage Houston. Only because Ariza is in the starting lineup and Bynum may or may not be 100% right now.
Coach: Phil Jackson vs. Rick Adelman
Hmmmm. Let's see. Lots of championship rings versus zero championship rings. I think most people would agree Jackson is the superior coach here.
What to watch for: As long as Phil Jackson doesn't suddenly and mysteriously pass away, I think the Lakers will be okay from a coaching standpoint. Rick Adelman will need his best Doc Rivers impression to hang with Jackson this series. And that won't be easy, as Adelman has had his share of difficulties during playoffs of years past.
Advantage: Lakers. Easily.
Conclusion: On paper, I'd say that the Rockets or Nuggets were the best potential opponent to upset LA. What I like most about Houston is their ability to throw Artest and Battier at Kobe, as well as the interior physicality that YAO and Scola bring to the table. LA could be in a little bit of trouble here, depending on Bynum's health. Then again, if Bynum is healthy it's a completely different story.
I will also add that the Lakers are softer than everyone seems to think. They are NOT a physical team. Especially without Bynum 100%. The Lakers showed this in the Finals last season, and not much as changed in the games that I've seen them play this year.
Houston is possibly the most physical team in the West, with Battier/Artest/YAO/Scola/Hayes/Landry/etc. If Odom disappears again, Houston could make this a series.
The Rockets finally advanced out of the first round (TWolves fans felt your pain), without TMac no less (he's still in pain.)
Is this their year?
Are the stars aligning?
Is Artest the missing ingredient?
I don't know.
And when it comes down to the nitty-gritty, the Lakers still have Kobe.
Regular Season Results: Lakers won the regular season series 4-0.
Prediction: Lakers in 6. Maybe it will take 7 games, but I doubt it.
CW
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