This piece is written by TBF - in his debut here.  TBF originally wrote this as a forum piece, but in discussion he & I agreed it was definitely good enough to put up as a blog-piece.  TBF hails from the same part of the world as Usher & 46 (who both have shared their insight over the past 6 months)...

There are pretty much two ways to draft a player these days: to fit a glaring need on your team, or to take the best available talent. There are other scenarios for stashing players over in Europe to save on salaries and also trading down to second round picks so you can ship them off after training camp, but as a general rule this is how the first round is drafted.

If we take this to be true, then this is how I predict the top 10 in the draft would look if teams drafted according to their need:

1. Blake Griffin to LAC.

Yes they have 2 other PFs already, but LAC NEED to not stuff up another pick more than they need anything else and truth be told they have decent players at every position. Randolph can be traded. Davis can be traded. Sounds like a long-shot, but if you're a GM that really wants to change the culture you can easily get some nice role-players for those "troublesome" stars.

2. Hasheem Thabeet to MEMPHIS.

They do have Marc Gasol, but together with Thabeet they'd have a very solid inside presence to build around. A decent coach and they could actually put together a strong defensive unit. The reason they don't need Rubio is Conley's finish last season. He, Mayo and Gay worked ok together and by adding in Thabeet to draw some down low attention Mayo will get more open looks and improve his FG%.

3. James Harden to OKC.

Yep I've gone cold on Rubio in OKC. This is because I see a lot of playmaking ability in Harden, Westbrook, Durant AND Green. With all that on the floor (or at least 3 at any given time) you don't need a bonafide distributor as these 4 can create for one another. It also gives a very deadly backcourt as Westbrook and Harden both have range, both like to penetrate and both can create for themselves. Anything that gives Durant more open shots is a good thing.

4. Ricky Rubio to SAC.

No need to trade up for Sacramento. They'll get their guy at #4, they'll finally have a young COMPLETE core, and Rubio will land in a destination he's actually willing to go. Rubio fits the personality of this team and will grow exponentially under a coach like Paul Westphal. Rubio/Martin/Garcia/Thompson/Hawes. Sacramento's 5 last draft choices. All young, all capable - and all capable of a bright future together.

5. Jordan Hill to WAS.

This is purely because what Washington need to do is trade for someone who can come in right now and help. They're strong at pretty much every position except SG and so by getting Hill they have the ability to dangle him for a SG type player to any team needing a sold PF. This is a tough one to pick as they could easily be told to draft someone by another team so that a pre-meditated trade can go through (e.g. Steven Curry, Brandon Jennings).

6. Stephen Curry to MIN.

Minnesota need a true PG. There aren't many in this draft, but as the Wolves have 3 first round picks they can easily grab a Patrick Mills/Ty Lawson lower in the draft and grab Curry here in the hope that along with Foye they'll add to the inside/outside system the Wolves are trying to build. Those two in the backcourt, Gomes at the SF, Love and Jefferson. A nice young starting 5 with a bright future one would think. Also, let's not forget that on the bench are Carney, Brewer and Telfair. Add in a Sam Young with one of your other picks and Minnesota have a bright future. As well as all that, when they trade Mike Miller, and they will trade him - they most likely get some quality in return. Curry makes a lot of sense in Minnesota.

7. Brandon Jennings to GSW.

One of the few teams happy enough to "take a punt" GSW will go for Jennings or the other project DeMar DeRozan with this pick. This team has a lot of young talent and I expect them to make some big moves in the offseason to shore up their needs (mostly C and PG). Jennings fits a need but he is unlikely to be ready to manage a team of his own as yet. Still, there are no bigs worthy of this pick so a PG it must be for GSW and if Jennings lives up to the hype he's absolutely worth it.

8. DeMar DeRozan to NYK.

Mike D'Antoni needs athletes. DeRozan is an athlete and then some. His game needs a lot of work but he'll get a lot of opportunity learning under D'Antoni and with his athleticism he'll probably see some decent court time too. The worry here is his lack of jumpshot as D'Antoni loves pure jump-shooters, but I'm seeing DeRozan, at least in his first season, acting as a work horse for this team. He'll be very Dominic McGuire-like, just plugging in the holes with his insane athleticism and then scoring opportunistically.

9. Tyreke Evans to TOR.

The Raptors will be very happy if this happens as Anthony Parkers contract is up and he'll be after a pay raise. Also, if Evans is off the board then there's a plethora of PGs and that's one of the few things Toronto don't need. Evans' combo ability goes well in Toronto and makes him usable right away. His jumpshot is steadily getting better in the pre-draft camps and he rebounds very well for his size (we all know Toronto needs help with that). If Evans is still available here then Toronto won't hesitate in pulling the trigger on this guy.

10. Johnny Flynn to MIL.

This is a tough one. You could easily slot Jrue Holiday in here but as Flynn is more of a natural point player with pass first mentality I'm putting him in here. He's also more NBA ready than Holiday in this offensive system (I see too much Charlie Bell in Holiday and that doesn't bode well for transitioning to Milwaukee). Problem is, Milwaukee need a PF more than they need a PG. A decent PF, like Jordan Hill could take stress off Bogut, make Bogut more effective, and spread the floor for Redd and Jefferson. In that instance one could easily tolerate Ridnour running the offense. But without a PF unavailable, and I did consider Milwaukee taking a punt on James Johnson or DeJaun Blair with this pick, then Milwaukee need a PG and Flynn is a good one for a while to come.

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Comments (3)

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written by Soph, June 23, 2009

I really hope Rudio doesn't end up in Sactown. Unless they lose one of the PG/SG he'll only get scraps for mins.

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written by with-malice, June 23, 2009

Nice write-up TBF.

Agreed Soph, tho' given his reluctance to go to certain places, I wouldn't be surprised to see his stock fall even more...

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written by TBF, June 24, 2009

Thanks malice.

Soph how do you figure Rubio won't fit in Sacto? Sacto are quite over Beno Udrih and may even trade him. Add onto that, Rubio is a better PG than Udrih NOW so why not sit Udrih behind Rubio?

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