TBF’s Draft Prognosis…

NBA_Draft_logoLet’s get it out there right away: this draft is shocking…
If I were the teams with high picks I’d be doing a David Kahn and offering up straight away. And FYI – I totally agree with the draft being rigged. The narratives border on stupid and lets face it – the NBA have done similar things to create dynasties before. Anyways here is what I think will happen in the first 10:

1. Kyrie Irving – no brainer
2. Derrick Williams – traded somewhere (names jumping into my head are Ellis, Duncan, OJ Mayo…)
3. Enes Kanter – he’s white….

So there is a massive drop from here on in and this is where, honestly, I don’t think ANYONE can make a reasonable assessment of what’s going to happen. I think there will be two major forces at work though – teams wanting to slash payroll will be trading for picks, and teams wanting experience will be trading their picks.

4. Brandon Knight – traded somewhere. This IS NOT Minnesota so it’s conceivable that the Cavs won’t be silly enough to pick two point guards. The Europeans are intriguing but honestly, you could get more assured value by trading down for a sleeper and getting a role model (i.e. getting a Morris twin plus an experienced role player). Knight has value which is why I think they’ll pick him.
5. Vasulianis/Vesley – it’s Colangelo and these guys are the best Euro’s in the draft. They both have concerns though outside their contract buyouts –> Vesley is afraid of the key (reminds you of Bargnani…) and Vasulianis has no vertical leap (yes I’ve seen the videos – consider the opposition. Serge Ibaka would eat him.). I think they have more of a need at the C so Vasculianis could get the nod but Vesley is easily the most athletic and promising.
6. TRADED – Wizards are n a bind here because they were hoping to land a Derrick Williams type to grow alongside Wall. That said, they could always trade up by throwing in a player or two to Minnesota. Otherwise I honestly think that there are two choices – take a punt on Marcus Morris or Kawhi Leonard; or go get a second year type to come in. Jeff Green from Boston?
7. NOT Kemba Walker – I don’t get the current narrative that “Evans isn’t a point guard”. I think everyone knew that he was a POINT FORWARD and bringing in a true point guard in Kemba Walker (pass first) is just illogical. Personally I think that Sacramento have done a nice job in getting Marcus Thornton to run alongside Evans and/or Udrih so for now their backcourt is relatively set with this draft offering little to assist.
My question then moves to the front line.
Sacramento are another team that could easily offer some pieces plus this pick to move up to Williams, or send this pick to a team like San Antonio or Utah that are in dire need of some young legs. Once again – I think this pick may get traded though I will put a disclaimer out pending workouts – if Kawhi Leonard does indeed show G-Force signs of play or Bismack Biyombo proves more than a one time phenom, then they are real possibilities here. The Kings need D.
8. Bismack Biyombo – great alongside the pleasantly surprising Greg Monroe. Given that this team need to be blown up this will be another nice piece to keep when the dust settles. Though a team like, once again, the Timberwolves may be interested in a Ben Gordon/Rip Hamilton so Derrick Williams may end up a Piston yet.
9. Marcus Morris/Jan Vesley – this will depend on workouts but the Cats need a SF and both these boys are ballers at their position. This pick will be held onto. Probably a good thing Jordan doesn’t get to bits on Biyombo….
10. Marcus Morris/Jan Vesley – the consensus here is Alecs Burks. I am not sold (wait for workouts). There are 2 main reasons for this – the Bucks have a backlog of players at this position, and Burks is a liability on D something that Skiles doesn’t like. This is why I think Morris, if still available (or his brother for that matter…) with his massive IQ for the game will be taken here in a heartbeat. If not Vesley will be a good payoff for 4 years whilst the Bucks try and move some bad contracts.